EU ETS policy simulator

    ETS Simulator

    A transparent, fully parameterised model of the EU ETS — built by Climact with European Climate Foundation funding to inform the 2026–2027 revision debate. You drive the policy assumptions; the engine projects the whole market.

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    Illustrative output · Status quo

    Overall supply demand balance

    Mios EUA(A)s
    2021–2040

    04509001,3501,80020212025203020352040
    Annual supplyAnnual demandTNACOverall cap

    2021–2040

    Modelled horizon

    Per benchmark

    Free allocation resolved to product-benchmark level

    27 MS

    Auctions per Member State

    5 levels

    Of output depth

    How it works

    Your inputs, a full market projection

    You set two categories of input — policy options and emission scenarios — and the engine projects the entire EU ETS market from them, rather than handing you a fixed set of conclusions.

    You configure

    Policy options

    Scope
    Cap setting
    Cap distribution
    Free allocation
    MSR parameters

    Emission scenarios· per sector

    Power
    Industry
    Maritime
    Aviation

    Simulation engine

    Projects the full EU ETS market, 2021–2040

    You get

    A complete, transparent projection of the market — supply, demand, auctions, free allocation and the MSR — that you can compare across scenarios and export.

    Five levels of depth

    What it outputs

    Five levels of depth

    Each level adds granularity — from headline market indicators down to benchmark-level free allocation.

    1. 01

      General indicators

      Annual supply and demand, and the total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC).

    2. 02

      Annual supply per source

      Auctions, free allowances, Modernisation Fund, Innovation Fund and MSR outtakes.

    3. 03

      Market Stability Reserve

      In- and outtakes, cancellations, and the remaining balance.

    4. 04

      Auctions per Member State

      By source, including Article 10(2)(a) and 10(2)(b) shares, the Modernisation Fund, and phased-out free allowances.

    5. 05

      Free allowances per sector and benchmark

      Together with the annually calculated Cross-Sectoral Correction Factor (CSCF).

    Established track record

    A live, tested model informing the ETS revision

    The tool is already used to answer the strategic questions at the centre of the current ETS revision debate:

    • How changes to the Linear Reduction Factor and the Market Stability Reserve affect the allowance surplus to 2030 and beyond.
    • How the Cross-Sectoral Correction Factor affects the pace of free allocation phase-out.
    • The impact of expanding ETS transport coverage, for instance to all aviation flights.
    • The role carbon removal technologies could play within the ETS framework.
    • How international carbon credits affect achievement of the 2040 target.

    Explore your own ETS scenarios

    Sign in to interact with the model, run predefined or custom scenarios, and export your results.

    Try it now

    Climact is grateful to the European Climate Foundation for providing the finance required to develop this tool.

    Contact:Simon LalieuCorentin Bonte